Parliamentary election25 October 2026
Weighted average of 2026 polls · 250 seats · D'Hondt · 3% threshold
All 18 lists declared by the Republic Electoral Commission. The faint band is the 90% uncertainty range, the red tick the 3% threshold.
| List | Estimated support | % | Seats |
|---|
National polls published since the 2023 election. Only 2026 polls measuring the current lists count towards the average; earlier ones show the trend.
Pollsters differ widely. The figures below come from 1,000 simulated elections: each is a complete 250-seat result in which lists gain at each other's expense.
Dot: central estimate. Band: 90% of simulations. Dashed red line: 126 (majority).
Pick a list and a seat target — the model works backwards to find the smallest support needed (the other lists keep their relative shares).
All 18 lists can be adjusted and the result updates instantly. Only this section changes — the rest of the page shows the poll average.
The threshold is 3% of all ballots cast (incl. invalid): about 3.08% of valid votes, exactly 3% in “all ballots” mode. Register: 6,450,523 voters (RIK, 10 October 2026). 2023: 58.77% turnout, 2.73% invalid. When turnout changes, minority lists keep the same number of votes.
Click the lists: which alliance would reach a majority (126) or two-thirds (167, for constitutional change) on the poll average?
The same vote shares, calculated under eight different allocation rules: the systems of the Hungarian Election Monitor plus three Serbian specifics and the largest remainder method. District-based systems (first-past-the-post, two-round, instant runoff, STV, regional) are not included, because Serbia is a single nationwide constituency and there is no district-level data for the 2026 lists.
| List | Serbian (base) | Simulated | +/- |
|---|
Serbia elects its 250 MPs in a single nationwide constituency from closed lists. The model's self-check: with the official 2023 votes it reproduces the actual 129 / 65 / 18 / 13 / 13 / 6 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 allocation exactly.
The simulation is a mathematical estimate, not a forecast. Serbian pollsters' methodology is not very transparent (according to a 2026 BIRODI analysis, weighting and funding are rarely disclosed), and some houses are accused of bias. Sources: sr.wikipedia.org — Парламентарни избори у Србији 2026.; en.wikipedia.org — 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, Opinion polling…, 2023 Serbian parliamentary election; RIK. Data updated: 6 October 2026.
Got a question or a comment on the model? Feel free to get in touch.
This project was created to analyse Serbia's parliamentary election and visualise different scenarios, as a sister site of the Hungarian Election Monitor. If you have a comment on the model — for example about a new poll, how a list is classified, or the estimated votes of minority lists — please get in touch using the contacts below! The polling data and the methodology are continuously updated. My aim is to give an independent, objective picture of Serbia's electoral process using all available and relevant data: the model combines the latest polls with Serbia's actual electoral rules, and checked against the official 2023 results it reproduces the real seat allocation exactly.
